Study title:Effect of timed phone call surveillance versus routine care on postpartum care, selected adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes at KNH, a randomized controlled trial. PI-Brian Liyayi; Supervisors: Bosire Alex, Osoti Alfred, Chemwey Rose Correspondence to: niqliy@gmail.com Background: Postnatal care (PNC) can lower newborn and or maternal morbidity and deaths by increasing recognition and management of postnatal complications that may affect the baby and the mother. In Kenya, only 51% receive good PNC in 48 hours after delivery while 57 % go for a postnatal checkup at 6 weeks postpartum. It is estimated that 10-27% of newborn deaths would be averted by adequate utilization of PNC. Mobile phone based postpartum interventions have improved day 3 PNC attendance from 45% to 81% in South Africa. They can therefore be scaled in the postpartum period to increase quality of PNC through recognition of danger signs and reminders for PNC visits. Objective: To determine the effect of timed phone call-based PNC compared to routine PNC on PNC attendance and selected adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes at 72 hours, 10-14days, and 6 weeks after delivery. Methodology: This was an open label randomized controlled trial where eligible postnatal women at KNH were randomly assigned to either an intervention, a timed phone call(n=70) or control, routine of care(n=71). The nature of intervention was impossible to blind. The intervention group received a phone call at 72 hours,10-14 days and 6 weeks postpartum. The routine care group received a phone call only at 6 weeks postpartum. During enrollment and each call, participants underwent interviewer administered questionnaire using a checklist. The primary outcomes were PNC attendance and identification of risk factors for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes while the secondary outcomes were adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Study Population: Women who delivered at KNH and were within first 3 days postpartum. Study setting: KNH labor and postnatal wards. Analysis plan: Data was collected via ODK collect application, cleaned and analyzed using Stata®14. Categorical data were summarized as frequencies and proportions and compared between the two groups using Chi-square test or Fishers exact test. Continuous data were summarized as means and standard deviations or median and interquartile range and compared between the two groups using independent student t test or Mann Whitney u test. Relative Risk (RR)were also calculated. P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.All analysis was intention to treat. Results: Between October and December 2019, 161 postnatal women were screened and 141 enrolled. The baseline characteristics were similar. The mobile phone call increased PNC attendance at 72 hours (5.7% vs 4.2%, RR=1.35[(95%CI 0.31 5.82) p=0.684].and at 10-14 days (69% vs 44%, RR=1.57[(95%CI 1.15 2.14) p=0.003]) compared to routine PNC. Women in the phone call group were more likely to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes compared to the routine care group (36.6% vs 8.6%, RR=4.56, P<0.001). Adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes were more likely to be recorded in the phone call group compared to the routine care group (20%vs 8.5%, RR=2.37, p=0.049). The study did not involve any medical intervention therefore no reported risk to the participants. Conclusion: Compared to routine care, phone calls for PNC follow up improved the 2-week clinic attendance and resulted in more risk factor identification for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes among women who delivered at KNH and were randomized into this study. Recommendations:Mobile Phone call interventions are recommended for use in the postpartum period to improve 10-14-day postnatal retention. They can as well be used to improve risk factor identification for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Trial registration:PACTR202005876065918 Funding:Self-funded

The study had sought to examine the impact of climate variability on poverty in Kenya. Specific objectives included to examine the effect of climate variability and other covariates on poverty in Kenya. To establish the mediating effect of economic growth on the relationship between climate variability and poverty. To examine the direction of causality between climate variability and poverty. The study adopted Keynesian theory, Fosu Growth-Poverty Model and Vulnerability Frameworks. The diagnostic research design was adopted examine the causal effect link between climate variability and poverty levels in Kenya. ARDL model and Error Correction model was adopted. The Error Correction term allowed for detection of short run and long run casual relationships and captures the long run adjustment of the cointegrated variables. The study further adopted pairwise granger causality test to examine the direction of causation between climate variability and poverty. The study results revealed that climate variability and other covariates explained poverty to a major extent as depicted by adjusted R2 of 0.9663 and 0.9419 for the consumption per capita and head count ratio models. Further, widespread climate shock occurrence and rainfall variability had a significant effect on consumption per capita and head count ratio measures of poverty. The study thus accepted the alternative hypothesis that climate variability has a significant effect on poverty in Kenya. Regarding the mediating effect of economic growth on the relationship between climate variability and poverty, it was established that economic growth mediated the relationship between climate variability (Rainfall variability and climate shock) and poverty in Kenya. The alternative hypothesis that economic growth mediates the relationship between climate variability and poverty in Kenya was thus accepted. Finally, regarding the direction of causality between climate variability and poverty in Kenya. The study revealed that poverty granger caused temperature variability. The study therefore concludes there is unidirectional causality between climate variability and poverty in Kenya running from poverty to climate variability. The study thus rejected the hypotheses that climate variability granger causes poverty in Kenya. The study recommended that government should focus on alleviating poverty in a bid to control climate change by raising minimum wages and investing in the Agricultural sector which is the main source of livelihood of poor communities. The government should continue implementing tax policies that hurt the poor masses less to help in redistribution of resources to the poor. Additionally, the government should invest in pro poor projects. Policies that encourage economic growth can help minimise the negative impacts of climate variability on the poor masses. The government should also come up with policies of import minimization to reduce imported inflation that hurt the poor. Further, cost push inflation resulting from wage demands by the lowly paid workers should attract policy from the government inform of having peaceful labour relations in the country.

Diaspora remittances are defined as cash transmitted by an individual in a foreign land to their country of origin. Macroeconomic variables are variables that are a pointer of the existing trends on the economy. Remittances sent from people in diaspora have become one of the biggest ways of external financing for developing republics. The rising attention to diaspora remittances originates from the realization of the vital role they play in alleviating poverty and promoting economic development. This study sought to establish whether diaspora remittances affect macroeconomic variables in East Africa Community (EAC). EAC is currently comprised of six (6) countries: Kenya, Tanzania, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda. Kenya ranked first in EAC as the leading recipient of remittances and in the next position was Uganda after it was South Sudan then Tanzania, behind it Rwanda and Burundi between 2013 and 2018. However, South Sudan was not included in the data collection and analysis as it joined EAC in 2016 and thus its data was not available for the whole study period. The study used descriptive research design. Secondary data was used for the period 2011-2020 and it was obtained from the respective National Bureaus of Statistics of the countries in EAC, respective Central Banks and World Bank development indicators. The data was evaluated using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25 software. The study established that diaspora remittances positively affect GDP growth rate, negatively affect inflation rate, positively affect exchange rate and negatively affect unemployment rate. However the study concluded that at 5% level of significance, diaspora remittances is not statistically significant in affecting in, GDP growth rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and unemployment in EAC. This study will make a contribution to the literature on effect of remittances on macro-economic factors in EAC which will be part of articles that will be useful to researchers willing to further these studies. The study shall also assist the governments in EAC in establishing structures to administer and ways to gain directly into the funds from foreign lands as a strength for ventures and progress of the nations. This study suggested further studies to focus on other macroeconomic variables in the EAC that were not covered in this study such as interest rate. Further, researchers can cover a different and a longer time period to research and do a similar study. Other studies on effects of diaspora remittances can focus more on unemployment and exchange rate in EAC. Studies can also incorporate remittances received through informal channels if data is availed and combine with the formal channels of remittances.

Over the past decade, commercial bank credit to agriculture as a percentage of private sector credit has continued to increase. On the contrary, growth in agricultural value added has exhibited a constant trend. It is against this background that the study examined the impact of commercial bank credit on the performance of agricultural sector in Uganda using quarterly data for the period 2008q1 to 2017q4. While using ARDL estimation technique, the study found commercial bank credit to agriculture to have a positive but insignificant impact on the performance of the agricultural sector in Uganda. Variables found to have a significant impact on the performance of agricultural sector include growth in net capital stock, inflation, and lending rate with growth in net capital stock having a positive relationship while inflation and lending rate have a negative impact. Based on the findings, the study recommends realigning commercial bank credit to reach the production base. This entails measures to reduce risks at the production stage (for example through agricultural insurance). The study further recommends measures to reduce inflation rate and commercial bank lending rate. Key words: Agriculture, Credit, Value Added, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

The objective of this study was mainly to investigate factors responsible for survival of Uganda’s small and medium businesses. The investigations were based on the records of the businesses from the survey done by Uganda Bureau of Statistics. Business survival was measured from the year when the business started operations to the year when the survey was conducted (2010) excluding those started before 1987. A time-to-event approach in a Cox Proportional Hazard model was adopted in the analysis. In the results, a total of 212,511 businesses were considered to have exited operations by the time of the survey. A median survival period of 4.85 years (range, 1 – 23) estimated indicates a low survival rate of Uganda’s businesses. From the multivariate assessment, the rate of exit of businesses was significantly (p<0.05) higher for businesses located in the central, those employing more number of employees, owned by non-Ugandans, not of sole proprietorship and those considered not to be innovative (owning a computer, using a computer and using internet). The findings of this study point to a need to scale up measures aimed at ensuring that the survival levels of businesses in the Country improve like significantly encourage the use of ICT and reduce ICT related costs, creation and gazzetting of areas mainly for businesses like creation of industrial parks and organizing similar businesses in the same locality for easy movement of factors of production; and training the citizens mainly in skills development.

Kampala Capital City serves as an economically vibrant city with urbanization and faster population growth that keeps on increasing over the years. This has facilitated the rising demand for goods and services which leads to increased urban mobility and movement of people within the precincts of Kampala Metropolitan Area. Economic growth and socio-economic development creates the demand for the rising urban mobility. The demand for urban mobility enhances the use of private and public vehicles. As a result, the rise in the demand for transport facilities plays a significant role in generating road traffic congestion and demeaning the urban setting within the CBD of Kampala. This study aimed at examining the effectiveness of existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion in Uganda with special emphasis on GKMA. The study used a cross-sectional survey design combining both qualitative and quantitative approaches with the help of primary data using a questionnaire. The specific objectives that guided this study are; examining the extent of change of traffic congestion from implementation of existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion; determining the extent of achievement of objectives of existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion; assessing the extent of realization of expected outcomes of existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion and examining Stakeholders’ and beneficiaries' knowledge, understanding and capacity to carry out actions of the existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion. The study found that the existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion are not effectively implemented. The findings indicated that the number of vehicles on the road has increased over time as only one percent cover pedestrians. Vehicles on Kampala roads took an average time of one hour on the road is, and all exit and entry routes to CBD including Gayaza road, Masaka-Busega road, Kamwokya-Kisaasi road, Namugongo-Ntinda-Kamwokya, Entebbe road, and Sir Apollo Kagwa road were highly congested. The Causes of traffic congestion were persistent which all demonstrated that the problem of traffic congestion had increased. The study further established that neither the objectives nor the expected outcomes stipulated in the existing policy frameworks had been achieved. Instead, negative consequences of traffic congestion continued to emerge inform of high average travel time, high freight transportation costs, wastages of time in traffic, productivity loss and money loss which are ensued as a result of road traffic congestion. The assessment of stakeholders’ knowledge of existing policy frameworks on traffic congestion indicated that more than 50 percent of the respondents were unaware of existing policy frameworks and how they are implemented and enforced. In conclusion, therefore, the study demonstrated that the existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion had not been effective in tackling the problem of road traffic congestion in GKMA. The study recommends that a regulatory impact assessment on traffic congestion is carried out to understand the issue of concern, its causes and effects so as identify the most feasible policy option for reducing road traffic congestion in GKMA that is logical, evidence based and inclusive for road traffic congestion. The study also recommends that the government carries out extensive consultation, sensitization and awareness drives regarding the existing policy frameworks on road traffic congestion amongst all relevant stakeholders to enhance implementation, enforcement, accountability, learning, monitoring and evaluation for improved service delivery. The study also argues the government to consider reinstating the construction of the Uganda railway. Based on the study findings, construction of Uganda railway can help to minimize the problem of road traffic congestion as people will now be using the railway option instead of congesting the CBD with the available public and private transport means. Key Words: Public Policy Effectiveness; Kampala; GKMA; Uganda; CBD; Traffic Congestion

This study was carried out in Semuliki National Park (SNP) in western Uganda to assess the invasive potential of selected alien plant species. The aim was to determine the density and size class distribution of invasive alien plants and how environmental factors influenced their distribution in disturbed and undisturbed forest. The hypothesis was that alien plant species would be restricted to disturbed forest and not occur in undisturbed forest. The sampling sites were located in Rwakasenyi (SS1), Sempaya (SS2), Bumaga (SS3), Ntotoro (SS4), and Nsaara (SS5). Data collection was done in nested plots of 20mx10m established on alternate sides of transects running from disturbed into undisturbed forest. The results show that Cedrela odorata, Senna siamea, Theobroma cacao, Coffea canephora and Ananas comosus were the most common invasive alien plant species. However, C. canephora and C.odorata appear to be the most invasive. There was a significant difference (P<0.05) in mean density of alien plant species between undisturbed and disturbed forest compartments. There was a significant difference (P<0.05) in size class distribution of alien plant species between undisturbed and disturbed forest compartments. The canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) biplot shows a significant correlation between alien plant species abundance and environmental factors. The soil types (loam, sand, and clay), canopy cover, forest vegetation, cultivation and dense herb cover played a significant role in influencing the distribution of alien plant species in undisturbed and disturbed forest compartments. Consistent with studies from other ecosystems, areas with high anthropogenic disturbance have a high percentage of alien plants probably due to the availability of resources. However, contrary to our hypothesis, natural areas of tropical forests were found susceptible to some alien plant species invasion. Native foraging herbivores like baboons, monkeys and birds probably act as the agents of dispersal for alien plant invasion in Semuliki National Park by dispersing edible seeds of T. cacao and C. canephora, whereas C. odorata the main disperser is wind and water in rivers. Disturbance highly influenced alien species abundance and its interaction with environmental and site conditions thus enabling alien plants to persist in disturbed forest and the resultant invasion of undisturbed forest. Park managers should monitor such interactions to reduce the invasiveness.

Although health insurance is not new in Uganda, the proportion of the population that utilises it, is at a meager 5 percent, with willingness to pay for health insurance standing at only 11 percent. In the absence of a national health insurance scheme, health sector financing is largely not pre-paid. Therefore, it is against this background that the study examined the determinants of demand for health insurance in Uganda. The study applied a logit model to secondary data from the UNHS 2016/17 conducted by UBOS and the results reveal that awareness about health insurance, age of an individual, one’s marital status, the education level, area of residence, wealth and the size of a household are significantly associated with demand (utilisation) for health insurance, whereas awareness, marital status, health status, education level, area of residence, size of a household, wealth, the region of residence, as well as suffering from a non-communicable disease are significantly associated with an individual’s willingness to pay for health insurance. Results further reveal that an individual’s gender (male or female), age as well as price (expenditure on medical and health care) are not significantly associated with willingness to pay for health insurance. Most Ugandans are not aware of health insurance as a mode of paying for medical care yet awareness proved as a very crucial factor in determining the demand for health insurance. Generally, the willingness to pay does not translate into actual utilisation of health insurance in Uganda. The study therefore, recommends for promoting of awareness about health insurance, increasing the literacy levels of Ugandans through education, promoting poverty reduction income enhancing programmes as well as urgently implementing a National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS).

Narcotic drug abuse is among the major crimes committed in Uganda. The country continues to suffer with this crime because it compromises peace, the socio-economic wellbeing of the people and deters economic growth and development. Although statistics released by the Uganda Police Force over the last five years indicate a decreasing trend in number of narcotic drugs related crimes, the number of cases registered remains high. According to the Police Annual Crime and Traffic/Road Safety Reports (2015-2020), there is slow progress in efforts to eradicate narcotic drug abuse and highlight challenges that include; gaps in the narcotic law, inadequate human resource, obsolete technologies and tools as some of the factors that undermine the effectiveness of the fight against narcotic drug abuse by the Uganda Police Force. This thesis contains an evaluation of the legal frameworks and the capacity of the Uganda Police Force in eradicating narcotic drug abuse. The evaluation includes a critical analysis of the available narcotic drug laws and how the Uganda Police Force as an enforcement institution has applied them to eradicate narcotic drug abuse. Through interviews and documentary reviews, the researcher analyses the effectiveness of the legal frameworks in eradicating narcotic drug abuse in Uganda with emphasis on Kampala Metropolitan Policing Area between the years 2015 -2020. In the process of providing such critical evaluation, and where relevant, the researcher also includes a comparative analysis of the relevant legal instruments and the narcotic drug problem in other jurisdictions, most notably the United Kingdom, United States of America, China and Mexico, which have experienced a lot of cases and literature on Narcotic drug abuse. The researcher observes that there are several gaps within the legal frameworks and institutional weaknesses within the Uganda Police Force that affect the eradication of narcotic drugs in Uganda. The researcher concludes with some recommendations to various stakeholders on how narcotic drug abuse can be eradicated.

Recently, there is a growing recognition that households especially in rural areas that receive their income from diverse portfolio of activities, have higher welfare, yet the evidence on the effects of non-farm incomes on household welfare in developing countries like Uganda remains scanty. This study examines the effects of non-farm incomes (wage employment, non-agricultural enterprises, transfers, property incomes, and remittances) on household welfare in Uganda. Using data from three recent waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS)—2011/12, 2013/14 and 2015/16—and applying a fixed effects panel model, the results indicate that; 1) having non-farm incomes has a significant positive differential effect on household welfare; 2) Having Nonagricultural enterprises is associated with the highest positive significant effects on welfare; and 3) higher level of education of the household head is associated with higher household welfare. The key policy message from these findings is that Government needs to focus on the formulation and implementation of policies aimed at encouraging households (especially those in rural areas) to diversify their income sources in order to improve their human well-being. Prioritizing the attainment of higher education levels through increased access and retention at higher education and reducing the high population growth rate. Addressing binding constraints to income diversification, through for instance, enhancing access to affordable finance and entrepreneurship skills of the labour force, is likely to increase non-farm incomes and lead to better standards of living particularly for the households. Keywords: Uganda, Non-farm Incomes, Household Welfare.